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Power Rating Week 3 Hall County Football 2007 Power Rating
End of Week 3
At the end of week 3 the Hall County football players have created the following power ratings. As the season goes on I take into consideration the following criteria: 1) Head to head competitions; 2) win/loss record; 3) ratio of points scored vs. points allowed; 4) opponents win/loss %... But this is week 3, just a small part on what the splendid young men who represent their schools on Friday night might do.
Following is a ranking from week 3’s performance,
Each week I look inside the stats of all teams, read newspaper accounts and talk to football people who have seen teams I have not seen yet and I always see at least one game.
As the season goes on, the power rating at the top will come down and the ones at the bottom will come up.
After studying football stats for 15 seasons in the National Football League and 8 seasons at Ohio State and William Mary we found some stats were more important than others. I try and highlight stats each week, the stats which have strong correlations with the final outcome of the game. The longer the season goes on and the more games which have been played, the more valid the statistics are for predicting future success.
1. North Hall (2-0-0) Average Points Scored 42.5: Average Points Allowed 0: Power Rating 85: With two games under their belt, this is a very impressive football team. A predominately senior football team, they look like last year’s team, but stronger and more physically dominating. Friday night they beat a good Johnson team, a Johnson team which looked right before half time like they might pull within one TD, when North Hall’s Dylon Wolf scooped up a Johnson fumble and rambled for an 80 yard TD. Johnson goes in at half time down 21-0, when it looked like it might have been 13-7. The Trojans can dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and Hunter Wolf from tailback and Bobby Epps from Fullback are both stronger and more physical than they were as juniors. Always sound and physical on defense each Trojan swarms the football making it tough to break the big one on them. When your runners can average 6.02 per carry and hold your opponents to 2.4 per carry like North Hall did at Johnson, hidden in the trenches are a bunch of big guys winning individual battles.
2. Flowery Branch (3-0-0) Average Points Scored 32.3: Average Points Allowed 5.67: Power Rating 5.71: The Branch handed previously undefeated Lumpkin County Indians their first loss. The score was 7-3 when the Indians lost their starting QB Daniel Abercrombie with 6:44 left in the first half. Led by senior QB Jaybo Shaw the Branch’s well executed option offense averaged 6.78 yards per carry on 32 carries. A running game that effective hardly ever loses. Dominating blocking by left guard Sean White and left tackle Michael Sullivan have paved the way for the Branch’s explosive running game. Added to this was a passing game which averaged 9.33 yards per pass attempt, another winning number. The very solid Flowery Branch defense controlled the line of scrimmage allowing 3.4 per carry. Nose Guard Cam Elrod and defensive end Izaan Cross have been extremely hard to block, freeing the linebackers to roam from sideline to sideline. On pass defense the Branch allowed 59 percent completion rate to a fine Indians passing game, but they never gave up the big one and they held the Lumpkin County passing game to 4.59 per attempt. Generally a team needs to average 8.5 yards per attempt to have an efficient passing game.
3. Gainesville (3-0-0) Average Points Scored 40.33: Average Points Allowed 7.33: Power Rating 5.50: When you have a talented QB like Justin Fordham at the controls of a well executed spread offense your offense can be a defensive coach’s nightmare. I am not sure how you can play pass defense against Tyler Adetona, Gerald Ford and Rob Hefflinger, when the offensive line is opening up holes which allow Kendrick Harris to average 12.22 yards per carry on 12 carries. In a young offensive line, both Taylor Stowe and Nick William had outstanding games. While the offense racked up a total of 489 yards, the Red Elephants continue to improve on defense. The Gainesville 3-4 defense held Gilmer to less than one yard per carry on 28 carries. Keith Wells, Robert Hughes and Josh Jackson were big play makers for the Gainesville defense. The Red Elephant pass defense gave up an ok 7.79 yards per pass attempt while making one interception. Gainesville was penalized 108 yards; this is number which could prove costly to the Red Elephants in a closer more competitive contest.
4. Chestatee (2-0-0) Average Points Scored 45: Average Points Allowed 20: Power Rating 2.25: Chestatee’s highly efficient triple option running turned out incredible numbers this past Friday night against Dawsonville. Ethan Souther guides where the ball goes each play allowing the Red Eagles to continually attack the defense at the place they are the most vulnerable. When you have Jo Jo Sweet, a home run hitter in the back field, defenses, often like Dawsonville did Friday night, try a take Jo Jo out of the game and force the QB to beat you. That is exactly what Ethan and his younger brother Ben did to Dawsonville Friday night. By the way, Jo Jo Sweet, against a defense which had been designed to stop him, still averaged 7.3 yards per carry in 13 carries. As effective as the War Eagle offense was their defensive numbers were even more impressive. These wild War Eagles held Dawson County to minus 11 yards in 27 carries, those are almost unheard of numbers. Chris Howard, Paul Marshal and Thomas Norman owned the line of scrimmage, while linebackers Chase Vasser and Matt Odle patrolled in behind their big guys plugging holes and roaming from sideline to sideline. They did this while holding the Dawson passing game to 5.12 yards per attempt. The Johnson Chestatee game Friday should be a great contest between to improving football programs.
5. Johnson (2-1-0) Average Points Scored 17: Average Points Allowed 12: Power Rating 1.42: This is a better Johnson football team that last Friday night’s 29-0 loss to powerful North Hall would indicate. I saw the first half of this game. These Johnson kids are very tough and competitive while getting beat by a more mature Trojan team. They never backed down and remained competitive throughout the contest. After North Hall’s first two possessions, where the Trojans seemed to completely dominate the game, with the help of the coaching staff Johnson stiffened and became more competitive. Micah Mills, Senior Linebacker, was all over the field making plays and Seth Evans continually ran hard into the teeth of the Trojan defense. The Johnson Knights I have watched the last couple of years show up every Friday night with a good plan and ready to play and they will play hard the full 48 minutes.
6. West Hall (0-3-0) Average Points Scored 20.67: Average Points Allowed 35.33: Power Rating 0.58: This improving Spartan team played a good White County team to a statistical standstill. West Hall had 333 total yards to White County’s 328. The Spartans put up winning numbers on offense both running and passing. They averaged a very respectable 5.19 per carry running and impressive 11.23 per pass attempt. We need to remember this is a White County team which battled the Red Elephants last week right down to the end before losing 21-19. Playing White County even - what was the difference in this close hard fought game where the Spartans lost 21-13? The Spartans turned the ball over 4 times to the White County; the Spartans were intercepted 2 times and lost two fumbles. Marquise Stephens and Daniel Drummond, behind the solid blocking of the offensive line, continue the make the Spartan offense competitive. West Hall needs to continue to improve on defense as they prepare for Friday night’s trip to the Brickyard.
East Hall (0-2-0) Average Points Scored 0: Average Points Allowed 45: Power Rating 0.01): The Vikings had this last week off while they are preparing to host the Falcons Friday night.
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